Unemployment and Labour Market Policy Attitudes : Political Predispositions, Economic Self- Interest, and Questions of Causality

Kumulative Dissertation, Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg, 2021

This cumulative dissertation project deals with the political consequences of unemployment.
More precisely, it focuses on the effects of the individual experience of unemployment on labour market policy attitudes and broader political predispositions. All three articles share basic theoretical ideas: effects of unemployment on policy attitudes can be expected when self-interest is seen as an important driver of attitudes. Considerable stable political predispositions are an additional or even alternative determinant of (social) policy attitudes . Various socio-economic factors shape both, the risk of unemployment and individuals’ political socialization experiences in their “impressionable years”. This creates the problem of confounding, i.e. the issue of third, potentially omitted, variables when estimating the causal effect of unemployment on political attitudes. Analyses use several cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets and causal inference techniques. Most, though not all, evidence in the three articles suggests there is no main effect of unemployment on labour market policy attitudes and broader political predispositions. However, there is less evidence suggesting no effect on labour market policy attitudes than evidence suggesting no effect on predispositions. The second and third article focus on the moderating effects of predispositions.