Essays on boundedly rational expectations in macroeconomics

Faculty/Professorship: University of Bamberg  ; Fakultät Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften: Abschlussarbeiten ; Empirical Economics  
Author(s): Hagenhoff, Tim
Other Contributing Persons: Lustenhouwer, Joep
Alternative Title: Aufsätze zu beschränkt rationalen Erwartungen in der Makroökonomik
Publisher Information: Bamberg : Otto-Friedrich-Universität
Year of publication: 2021
Pages: 145 ; Diagramme
Supervisor(s): Proano, Christian R.  ; Westerhoff, Frank H.  
Language(s): English
Kumulative Dissertation, Otto-Friedrich-Universität Bamberg, 2021
DOI: 10.20378/irb-49803
Licence: Creative Commons - CC BY - Attribution 4.0 International 
URN: urn:nbn:de:bvb:473-irb-498030
What are the implications of simple deviations from rational expectations for macroeconomic dynamics, monetary policy, consumption decisions and labor markets? Which biases underly even sophisticated survey expectations? I aim to answer these questions by building upon simple mathematical models of expectations that are boundedly rational and generate some disagreement across expectations. While monetary policy should be extraordinarily hawkish if it wants to control inflation under such expectations, it also generates substantial dispersion in consumption and wealth. Further, the sluggishness of labor market variables may be explained by sluggish expectations that affect, for instance, wage bargaining. Finally, expectations of professional forecasters are intrinsically persistent, depend on the last observed consensus forecast and also extrapolate current news more than would be rational.
GND Keywords: Makroökonomie; Rationale Erwartung; Eingeschränkte Rationalität; Geldtheorie; Arbeitsmarkttheorie; Heterogenität
Keywords: Expectations, bounded rationality, macroeconomics, monetary policy, labor markets, consumption dispersion, heterogeneity
DDC Classification: 330 Economics  
RVK Classification: QC 020     QC 300   
Type: Doctoralthesis
Release Date: 19. August 2021

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