Expected Valence Predicts Choice in a Recurrent Decision Task

There is empirical evidence that expected yet not current affect predicts decisions. However, common research designs in affective decision-making show consistent methodological problems (e.g., conceptualization of different emotion concepts; measuring only emotional valence, but not arousal). We developed a gambling task that systematically varied learning experience, average feedback balance and feedback consistency. In Experiment 1 we studied whether predecisional current affect or expected affect predict recurrent gambling responses. Furthermore, we exploratively examined how affective information is represented on a neuronal level in Experiment 2. Expected and current valence and arousal ratings as well as Blood Oxygen Level Dependent (BOLD) responses were analyzed using a within-subject design. We used a generalized mixed effect model to predict gambling responses with the different affect variables. Results suggest a guiding function of expected valence for decisions. In the anticipation period, we found activity in brain areas previously associated with valencegeneral processing (e.g., anterior cingulate cortex, nucleus accumbens, thalamus) mostly independent of contextual factors. These findings are discussed in the context of the idea of a valence-general affective work-space, a goal-directed account of emotions, and the hypothesis that current affect might be used to form expectations of future outcomes. In conclusion, expected valence seems to be the best predictor of recurrent decisions in gambling tasks.