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Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations
Westerhoff, Frank H.; Lines, Marji (2012): Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations, in: Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; quarterly publ. electronically on the internet, Berlin ; Boston, Mass.: De Gruyter, Nr. 16 (2012), 4, Article 7, doi: 10.1515/1558-3708.1900.
Faculty/Chair:
Author:
Title of the Journal:
Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; quarterly publ. electronically on the internet
ISSN:
1558-3708
Publisher Information:
Year of publication:
2012
Issue:
16 (2012), 4, Article 7
Pages:
Year of first publication:
2009
Language:
English
Abstract:
In this paper, we integrate heterogeneous inflation expectations into a simple monetary model. Guided by empirical evidence, we assume that boundedly rational agents, selecting between extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to predict the future inflation rate, prefer rules that have produced low prediction errors in the past. We show that integrating this behavioral expectation formation process into the monetary model leads to the possibility of endogenous macroeconomic dynamics. For instance, our model replicates certain empirical regularities such as irregular growth cycles or inflation persistence. Moreover, we observe multi-stability via a Chenciner bifurcation.
Keywords: ;  ;  ;  ; 
extrapolative and regressive expectations
dynamic predictor selection
macroeconomic dynamics
nonlinearities and chaos
bifurcation analysis
Type:
Article
Activation date:
June 14, 2013
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https://fis.uni-bamberg.de/handle/uniba/1414