We propose an evolutionary competition model to investigate the green transition of firms, highlighting the role of adjustment costs, state-dependent transition risk, and positive externalities in green technology adoption. Firms base their decisions to adopt either green or brown technologies on relative performance. To incorporate the costs of switching to another technology into their decision-making process, we adopt a novel, ad hoc crafted, replicator dynamics. Our global analysis reveals that increasing transition risk, e.g., by threatening to impose stricter environmental regulations, effectively incentivizes the green transition. Economic policy recommendations derived from our model further suggest maintaining high transition risk regardless of the industry’s level of greenness. Subsidizing the costs of adopting green technologies can reduce the risk of a failed green transition. While positive externalities in green technology adoption can amplify the effects of green policies, they do not completely eliminate the possibility of a failed green transition. Finally, evolutionary pressure reduces the extent of green economic policies required to ensure a successful green transition.