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Modeling House Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Speculators
Dieci, Roberto; Westerhoff, Frank H. (2013): Modeling House Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Speculators, in: Gian Italo Bischi, Carl Chiarella, und Iryna Sushko (Hrsg.), Global Analysis of Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance : Essays in Honour of Laura Gardini, Berlin [u.a.]: Springer, S. 35–61, doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-29503-4_2.
Faculty/Chair:
Author:
Title of the compilation:
Global Analysis of Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance : Essays in Honour of Laura Gardini
Publisher Information:
Year of publication:
2013
Pages:
ISBN:
978-3-642-29503-4
Language:
English
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of speculative behavior on house price dynamics. Speculative demand for housing is modeled using a heterogeneous agent approach, whereas ‘real’ demand and housing supply are represented in a standard way. Together, real and speculative forces determine excess demand in each period and house price adjustments. Three alternative models are proposed, capturing in different ways the interplay between fundamental trading rules and extrapolative trading rules, resulting in a 2D, a 3D, and a 4D nonlinear discretetime dynamical system, respectively. While the destabilizing effect of speculative behavior on the model’s steady state is proven in general, the three specific cases illustrate a variety of situations that can bring about endogenous dynamics, with lasting and significant price swings around the ‘fundamental’ price, as we have seen in many real markets.
Keywords: ; ; ;
Heterogeneous expectation
Housingmarkets
Boom-bust cycles
Bifurcation analysis
Type:
Contribution to an Articlecollection
Activation date:
June 14, 2013
Permalink
https://fis.uni-bamberg.de/handle/uniba/1413