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The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries
Ahrens, Leo; Bandau, Frank (2024): The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries, in: Electoral studies : an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy, Amsterdam [u.a.]: Elsevier Science, Jg. 88, Nr. 102774, S. 1–11, doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102774.
Faculty/Chair:
Author:
Title of the Journal:
Electoral studies : an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy
ISSN:
1873-6890
0261-3794
Publisher Information:
Year of publication:
2024
Volume:
88
Issue:
102774
Pages:
Language:
English
Abstract:
Researchers, politicians, and pundits commonly expect that voters retrospectively punish and reward government parties for tax policies, but there is surprisingly little cross-country evidence that backs this claim. This study provides comprehensive evidence from 30 OECD countries, 1970–2020. It analyzes the electoral fates of government parties that increased or cut taxes on personal incomes and consumption. Our findings confirm the prevalence of electoral consequences, but these depend on the type and direction of tax change. Government parties lose votes when they increase personal income taxes while there is only marginal evidence suggesting electoral reward for income tax increases and electoral consequences after value-added tax changes. The findings also indicate the distributive effects of reforms to matter. The most pronounced consequences arise when governments raise income taxes on the poor. The moderating role of conditional factors such as government partisanship and fiscal pressure are explored, but no consensus emerges from the findings.
Keywords: ;  ;  ;  ; 
Economic voting
Partisan theory
Political behavior
Retrospective voting
Tax policy
Type:
Article
Activation date:
May 7, 2025
Versioning
Question on publication
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https://fis.uni-bamberg.de/handle/uniba/108167