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Removing systematic patterns in returns in a financial market model by artificially intelligent traders
Witte, Björn-Christopher (2012): Removing systematic patterns in returns in a financial market model by artificially intelligent traders, Bamberg: opus.
Author:
Other Contributing Persons:
Corporate Body:
BERG (Bamberg Economic Research Group)
Publisher Information:
Year of publication:
2012
Pages:
ISBN:
978-3-931052-92-8
Series ; Volume:
Source/Other editions:
zuerst erschienen im BERG-Verlag, 2011
Year of first publication:
2011
Language:
English
Licence:
Abstract:
The unpredictability of returns counts as a stylized fact of financial markets. To reproduce this fact, modelers usually implement noise terms − a method with several downsides. Above all, systematic patterns are not eliminated but merely blurred. The present article introduces a model in which systematic patterns are removed endogenously. This is achieved in a reality-oriented way: Intelligent traders are able to identify patterns and exploit them. To identify and predict patterns, a very simple artificial neural network is used. As neural network mimic the cognitive processes of the human brain, this method might be regarded as a quite accurate way of how traders identify patterns and forecast prices in reality. The simulation experiments show that the artificial traders exploit patterns effectively and thereby remove them, which ultimately leads to the unpredictability of prices. Further results relate to the influence of pattern exploiters on market efficiency.
GND Keywords: ; ;
Kapitalmarkt
Künstliche Intelligenz
Mehragentensystem
Keywords:
financial markets; autocorrelations; artificial intelligence; agent-based modeling
DDC Classification:
Type:
Workingpaper
Activation date:
January 25, 2013
Permalink
https://fis.uni-bamberg.de/handle/uniba/1024