Options
Connecting the dots : how social networks shape macroeconomic expectations
Kothe, Rafael (2026): Connecting the dots : how social networks shape macroeconomic expectations, in: Bamberg: Otto-Friedrich-Universität.
Author:
Publisher Information:
Year of publication:
2026
Pages:
Source/Other editions:
Journal of economic interaction and coordination, Berlin ; Heidelberg: Springer, 2026, Online First, 47 Seiten, ISSN: 1860-7128, 1860-711X
Year of first publication:
2026
Language:
English
Abstract:
Standard behavioral frameworks often overlook how social network topology shapes the coordination of inflation expectations. To address this, I build a hybrid agent-based model that integrates “narrative-rooted” heuristics within a standard New Keynesian structural scaffold. In this framework, beliefs evolve through dual channels: performance-based selection (heuristic switching) and social diffusion (DeGroot learning). Simulations across canonical topologies reveal that seeding a target-based narrative in high-centrality nodes compresses forecast dispersion and accelerates convergence. However, a structural trade-off emerges: while performance evaluations dampen distorting narratives, strong social persuasion reduces volatility but simultaneously decouples expectations from economic fundamentals. This occurs because agents prioritize peer alignment over objective data, highlighting the double-edged nature of social networks: they stabilize expectations when credible narratives diffuse through hubs, but sever the link between beliefs and fundamentals when conformity overrides economic signals.
Keywords: ; ; ; ; ;
Expectations
Economic narratives
Network effects
Behavioral macroeconomics
Agent-based modeling
Monetary policy communication
DDC Classification:
RVK Classification:
Peer Reviewed:
Yes:
International Distribution:
Yes:
Open Access Journal:
Yes:
Type:
Article
Activation date:
January 16, 2026
Permalink
https://fis.uni-bamberg.de/handle/uniba/112599