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Half-hourly electricity price prediction model with explainable-decomposition hybrid deep learning approach
Ghimire, Sujan; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Hopf, Konstantin; u. a. (2026): Half-hourly electricity price prediction model with explainable-decomposition hybrid deep learning approach, in: Bamberg: Otto-Friedrich-Universität, S. 1–34.
Faculty/Chair:
Publisher Information:
Year of publication:
2026
Pages:
Source/Other editions:
Energy and AI, Amsterdam: Elsevier BV, 2025, Jg. 20, Nr. 100492, S. 1–34, ISSN: 2666-5468
Year of first publication:
2025
Language:
English
Abstract:
Accurate prediction of electricity price (𝐸𝑃 ) is crucial for energy utilities and grid operators for enhancing the energy trading, grid stability studies, resource allocations and pricing strategies, thereby improving the overall grid reliability, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. This study introduces a novel D3Net model for halfhourly 𝐸𝑃 prediction, integrating Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) with Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Random Forest Regression (RFR), and Tabular Neural Network (TabNet). The methodology involves applying STL to the 𝐸𝑃 time-series to extract trend, seasonal, and residual components. The trend is predicted using an MLP model, the seasonal component is further decomposed with VMD into 20 Variational Mode Functions (VMFs) and predicted using an RFR model, and the residual component is decomposed with VMD and predicted using the TabNet model. Input features are identified using the Partial Autocorrelation Function, and models are optimized using the Optuna algorithm.
Keywords: ; ; ; ; ; ;
Tabular neural network
SHAP
Optuna algorithm
Deep learning
Machine learning
Convolutional neural network
LIME
Peer Reviewed:
Yes:
International Distribution:
Yes:
Open Access Journal:
Yes:
Type:
Article
Activation date:
May 21, 2026
Permalink
https://fis.uni-bamberg.de/handle/uniba/115218