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Explaining the Stylized Facts of Foreign Exchange Markets with a Simple Agent-based Version of Paul de Grauwe’s Chaotic Exchange Rate Model
Mignot, Sarah; Westerhoff, Frank (2025): Explaining the Stylized Facts of Foreign Exchange Markets with a Simple Agent-based Version of Paul de Grauwe’s Chaotic Exchange Rate Model, in: Computational Economics, Dordrecht [u.a.]: Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Jg. 65, Nr. 2, S. 845–876, doi: 10.1007/s10614-024-10546-z.
Faculty/Chair:
Author:
Title of the Journal:
Computational Economics
ISSN:
1572-9974
Publisher Information:
Year of publication:
2025
Volume:
65
Issue:
2
Pages:
Language:
English
Abstract:
We propose a simple agent-based version of Paul de Grauwe’s chaotic exchange rate model. In particular, we assume that each speculator follows his own technical and fundamental trading rule. Moreover, a speculator’s choice between these two trading philosophies depends on his individual assessment of current market circumstances. Our agent-based model setup is able to explain a number of important stylized facts of foreign exchange markets, including bubbles and crashes, excess volatility, fat-tailed return distributions, serially uncorrelated returns and volatility clustering. A stability and bifurcation analysis of its deterministic skeleton provides us with useful insights that foster our understanding of exchange rate dynamics.
Keywords: ; ; ; ;
Foreign exchange markets
Exchange rates
Chartists and fundamentalists
Agent-based computational economics
Stability and bifurcation analysis
DDC Classification:
RVK Classification:
Peer Reviewed:
Yes:
International Distribution:
Yes:
Type:
Article
Activation date:
December 6, 2024
Project(s):
Versioning
Question on publication
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https://fis.uni-bamberg.de/handle/uniba/105279