Options
Estimation of rare disaster concerns from option prices : An arbitrage‐free RND‐based smile construction approach
Albert, Pascal; Herold, Michael; Muck, Matthias (2024): Estimation of rare disaster concerns from option prices : An arbitrage‐free RND‐based smile construction approach, in: Bamberg: Otto-Friedrich-Universität, S. 1807–1835.
Faculty/Chair:
Author:
Publisher Information:
Year of publication:
2024
Pages:
Source/Other editions:
The journal of futures markets, 43 (2023), 12, S. 1807-1835. - ISSN: 0270-7314, 1096-9934
Year of first publication:
2023
Language:
English
Abstract:
This research addresses the estimation of measures of rare disaster concerns from option prices. We propose a new smile construction approach to obtain the required continuum of implied volatilities from discretely sampled observations that are affected by microstructure noise. We extrapolate implied volatilities of far out-of-the-money options by modeling the tails of the risk-neutral return distribution (RND) ensuring that option prices do not admit arbitrage. Our numerical analysis and empirical application show that the RND-based approach consistently outperforms standard techniques. It substantially reduces estimation errors resulting in considerably higher estimates of the rare disaster concern index (RIX) when event risk is high.
GND Keywords: ; ; ; ;
Optionspreis
Katastrophe
Risikomaß
Mikrostrukturtheorie <Kapitalmarkttheorie>
Schätzung
Keywords: ; ; ; ;
microstructure noise
numerical errors
option-implied risk measures
rare disaster concerns
volatility smile construction
DDC Classification:
RVK Classification:
Peer Reviewed:
Yes:
International Distribution:
Yes:
Open Access Journal:
Yes:
Type:
Article
Activation date:
March 6, 2024
Project(s):
Permalink
https://fis.uni-bamberg.de/handle/uniba/93764