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From rally to reality : unveiling long-term dynamics in political trust over two years of COVID-19 in Germany
Zoch, Gundula; Wamsler, Steffen (2026): From rally to reality : unveiling long-term dynamics in political trust over two years of COVID-19 in Germany, in: Bamberg: Otto-Friedrich-Universität, S. 1–24.
Author:
Publisher Information:
Year of publication:
2026
Pages:
Source/Other editions:
Political research exchange : PRX : an ECPR journal, London: Taylor & Francis Group, 2024, Jg. 6, Nr. 1, 2403438, S. 1–24, ISSN: 2474-736X
Year of first publication:
2024
Language:
English
Abstract:
Crises like wars, terrorist attacks, and economic or health crises are frequently followed by profound changes in political trust. Whereas immediate external threats often induce a strong initial increase in political trust, the ‘rally-around-the-flag’ effect, prolonged crises are more detrimental to this core feature of political support. We extend previous research on political trust during extended crises by using the case of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Employing individual-level panel data from Germany (N = 21,001, 2017–2022) and district-level data on infection rates and government-imposed restrictions, we distinguish time trends from both government action and crisis severity for various government and non-government actors such as media or corporations. Results from fixed-effects regression models reveal a prolonged increase in individual-level political trust throughout 2020 and early 2021, followed by a significant decline in 2021/22. Contrary to extant work, we find limited influence of infection rates, whereas more stringent government policies explain decreasing trust later in the pandemic. These results are robust to including individual-level pandemic experiences like changes in work and family life. Thus, our results provide first evidence on the longevity of the initial rally effect in a high-trust country, which remains discernible at least one year into the pandemic.
GND Keywords: ; ; ; ;
Deutschland
Vertrauen
Politik
COVID-19-Pandemie
Geschichte 2017-2022
Keywords: ; ; ; ;
crisis
panel analysis
lockdown
rally-around-the-flag effect
trust in media
DDC Classification:
RVK Classification:
Type:
Article
Activation date:
April 17, 2026
Permalink
https://fis.uni-bamberg.de/handle/uniba/114767